When Elias presents his preliminary Bayesian models to his advisor, Dr. Grimsby, the tension is palpable."Where are the t-tests, Elias?" Grimsby barks. "What are these 'priors'? You're just making up numbers before you even see the data!"
Among them is Elias, a PhD candidate studying bird migration. He has a problem: his data is messy, his sample size is small, and the standard tests keep telling him nothing is happening. He feels like he’s trying to map a forest by looking through a straw. Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with ...
Elias stops asking, "Is this significant?" and starts asking, "Given what I know, what is the most likely path these birds took?" The Conflict: The Frequentist Inquisition When Elias presents his preliminary Bayesian models to
He closes the book, now dog-eared and stained with coffee, and looks at his data. The forest is no longer seen through a straw; the owl is finally drawn. You're just making up numbers before you even see the data