Reckoning With Risk: Learning To Live With Unce... -

Special interest groups often use to make numbers seem more dramatic than they are.

Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer on risk literacy - Roland Berger Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Unce...

"This drug reduces the risk from 2 in 1,000 people to 1 in 1,000." (The actual benefit is 1 person in 1,000). Special interest groups often use to make numbers

This guide covers the core principles of " Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty " (also published as Calculated Risks ) . The book argues that many of our fears and poor decisions stem from statistical illiteracy —an inability to understand the numbers used by doctors, lawyers, and the media. 1. Shift from Probabilities to Natural Frequencies The book argues that many of our fears

Use whole numbers. Instead of "0.1%," think " 1 in 1,000 people ." This makes the actual risk far easier to visualize and compare. 2. Recognize Absolute vs. Relative Risk

"This drug reduces heart attack risk by 50%!" (Sounds spectacular).

We often crave 100% certainty from experts, but Gigerenzer argues that true risk literacy begins by accepting that .